CorrectCare

The Looming Challenge of Dementia in Corrections

Tip of the Iceberg: 40 Year Forecast

As the United States population ages, the prevalence of dementia is on the rise. According to the Alzheimer’s Association, prevalence in the general population is forecast to increase from 1.7% in 2009 to 1.9% in 2030 and 2.6% in 2050. Using these rates as a baseline for correctional populations, we can estimate that the number of inmates with dementia may to rise to 127,130 in 2050.

However, several factors are in play that suggest even higher numbers. These include trends that are making the 55+ age group the fastest growing segment of the correctional population, the phenomenon of “accelerated aging” among inmates and more risk factors, both physical and psychological. Thus some models call for a prevalence rate double or even triple that of the baseline rate in the general population. Here’s what that would look like:

[This article first appeared in the Spring 2010 issue of CorrectCare.]